Estimated AHCA and ACA Premiums and Tax Credits by State, Income, Age, and Select Counties

These sheets supplement NASHP’s brief, Health Care is Local: Impact of Income and Geography on Premiums and Premium Support. Using data and modeling from the Kaiser Family Foundation, we present estimated premiums and tax credits under current law created by the Affordable Care Act (ACA) and under the American Health Care Act (AHCA), as passed by the House. Estimates are organized by age, income, and select high- and low-cost counties within states.

Note that these estimates only consider premium costs – they do not incorporate any analysis of predicted out-of-pocket expenses due to cost-sharing. Thus, this analysis only provides a partial picture of how consumer costs may shift due to changes incurred under the AHCA. The AHCA’s proposed elimination of Cost Sharing Reduction payments (CSR) and predicted stimulation of high-deductible health plans, for example, are expected to increase out-of-pocket spending, with especially significant increases predicted for consumers in states that opt to waive Essential Health Benefits requirements under the AHCA.

View map of county-by-county premium variation

State Fact Sheets:

Support for this work was provided by the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation. The views expressed here do not necessarily reflect the views of the Foundation. We are also grateful for the work of the Kaiser Family Foundation whose data we leveraged for this analysis (available at: We send special thanks to the policy team at Covered California for their analytic assistance, especially Andrew Feher, Isaac Menashe, and Katie Ravel.